The Post-Earthquake Challenges

By Fateh M. Chaudhri

THE devastating earthquake of October 8 was sudden and colossal. Several thousand homes were flattened and a generation of school children was instantly buried under the debris of schools. Almost all government buildings, hospitals, colleges, universities, telecommunication network, power lines, and water pipes were razed within a span of a few minutes across Azad Kashmir and parts of the NWFP.

More importantly, the earthquake blocked rescuers from reaching the affected zone.

The rescue and relief activity in the beginning was haphazard. In Islamabad, at the site of the Margalla Towers, the initially deployed teams were ill-prepared to organize rescue action. The process was slow, confusing and inadequate, reflecting on the absence of an emergency management plan or strategy.

If such a disaster were to strike urban centres such as Karachi, Quetta and Lahore, the nation would be totally paralysed. The quake has abundantly exposed the lack of preparedness at the national level to promptly respond to any natural or manmade crisis.

This makes it necessary for us to undertake zero-based budgeting. Each and every item of expenditure, including defence, must be analysed and justified in the wake of the October 8 catastrophe that has created new needs related to the rescue, relief, reconstruction and rehabilitation of millions of people.

At the same time, the gradually eroding tax/GDP ratio should be rectified and tax evasion must be stopped. A group of financial and economic experts from the public and private sectors should be assembled to identify new sources of revenues that are likely to put least pressure on the already stressed economic base of the country. In spite of a sizable aid pledge at the recent donor conference in Islamabad, the road ahead is steep and slippery.

The first and foremost challenge is to provide shelter and heating to everybody before the Himalayan winter sets in. The UN emergency relief coordinator, John Egeland, has been frank in his warning against the looming winter onslaught. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has urged the world to launch extraordinary efforts to cope with the catastrophe in South Asia. Even if sufficient numbers of tents of the right quality are acquired, inadequate heating could still lead to a health crisis, especially in view of the poor sanitation facilities in the quake-hit areas.

Escaping the killer mountains has to be the highest priority. Even though flying a helicopter costs $11,000 per hour, evacuating people from high mountains to the warmer plains is absolutely crucial. As observed by the UN coordinator, “It is now or never, we will not have a second chance”.

With helicopters from the US, Nato and the Red Cross, reaching inaccessible places is still feasible and must be done on a war footing. Let us not forget that six out of the nine districts affected by the earthquake are in “the most food insecure” parts of Pakistan. People in these areas were poor to begin with and the earthquake has made them poorer and more vulnerable. The use of the Pakistani army in emergency operations was necessary and, on balance, they have performed well. However, for future rehabilitation and reconstruction, most tasks should be undertaken by the civil administration.

What is needed today is zero tolerance for corruption. The accountant-general of Pakistan should promptly formulate and put in place a “speedy financial strategy” to manage the quick transfer of foreign donations, the prompt release of financial resources and computer-based uses of funds with clear monitoring and evaluation processes. He should immediately be given resources to establish a directorate for earthquake-related accounts with sufficient, qualified staff and a computer system to perform the required functions efficiently.

The Oct 8 catastrophe should become a catalyst for breaking away from past corrupt practices and charting new directions. It is extremely important that the uses of funds are absolutely transparent, judicious and easily accessible to anyone interested.

While the establishment of the Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority in Islamabad is an important step, its operations should be reflective of the basis of disaster management. Also, there should be two major authorities under the federal authority — one for Azad Kashmir and the other for the affected districts in the NWFP — to plan and implement rehabilitation and reconstruction projects with the full participation of the stakeholders in their respective regions.

Following rescue operations, priority should be given to quasi-permanent dwellings and facilities for education, health, water supply, electricity, telecommunications, opening up of roads, public buildings, office buildings, market places etc. At the same time, building codes have to be revised and the implementation mechanism put in place for building permanent structures capable of withstanding seismic shocks up to 9.0 on the Richter scale.

The catastrophe has clearly shown that we must have a national building code (NBC). In 1970, the ministry of works had prepared a draft NBC. But it has never been discussed and approved, and is probably buried in the National Assembly archives. Had it been implemented the magnitude of the Oct 8 tragedy would have been considerably less.

It is reported that about 100 mid- to high-rise buildings are under various stages of construction in Islamabad alone. Following the devastating earthquake, Islamabad’s risk category has been tentatively raised from zone 1 to zone 4.

How many more deaths and destruction do we need to finally complete and enforce the NBC? Persons responsible for delaying the preparation and approval of the NBC should be taken to task.

There is a general consensus that in the high-rise building sector, precisely-measured and pre-engineered steel frames should be used to construct high-rise buildings because these are light in weight and easily adaptable to earthquake resistant standards. Also, no building should be allowed to dot the city landscape unless detailed engineering drawings showing the precise location of all the proposed electrical, plumbing, gas pipelines as well as an adequate number of emergency exits are provided. A large number of multi-storied complexes are under construction all over Pakistan without conforming to the above requirements. In countries like the US and Japan, seismic activity on the scale of even 7.0 are not considered devastating as the building codes are up to date and effectively enforced.

Here, the zoning maps prepared by the meteorological department had placed Islamabad and Karachi in a category called “minor zone” reflective of approximately 4.8 Richter scale risk while the uniform building code (UBC-97) of the US places Islamabad and Karachi in zone four that requires buildings to be built to resist Richter scale shocks equivalent to 7.6-plus. The Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) that is supposed to update geological mapping, geo-hydrological situations, geotechnical and ontological investigations and undertake proper zoning has only rudimentary equipment to monitor earthquakes.

The GSP had previously prepared a seismic risk map of Northern Pakistan (1988), tectonics map (1982) and a seismo-tectonic map (1979), all of which are outdated now. It is extremely important that an independent GSP is created and equipped with modern technological apparatus and expert knowhow so that it performs its functions efficiently.

As recommended by an Islamabad citizens’ committee, a properly trained and fully qualified workforce of masons, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc, is essential to build good quality houses according to the building code. It is a huge challenge to train this workforce all over the country. However, it can be done with the help of the private sector in Pakistan and relevant institutions abroad. Their training and licensing mechanisms are to be given high priority.

In addition to the qualified workforce, rules governing the registration of consulting architects engineering firms should be rewritten to ensure that the registered firms have the requisite personnel of adequate qualification, experience, etc., for the preparation of drawings and detailed engineering plans.

Turning to the crucial task of preparing a disaster management strategy, this is a big challenge and an uphill task because almost all the building control authorities in Pakistan’s major cities have either been dormant or unmindful of irregularities and rampant violations of even the existing and less stringent building codes as well as of faulty components, including electricity, gas, and water pipelines. Despite these pathetic conditions, each major city and district has to have a focal point and a disaster management plan.

The first step in that direction will be a professionally conducted safety survey of existing buildings and structures and identification of hazardous points such as storage of gas cylinders, chemicals, fuel oil etc. At the same time, we must reactivate the near defunct civil defence department, train rescue workers and launch education and awareness campaigns. To accomplish these tasks in a satisfactory manner we can seek help from countries like Japan where disaster management plans are prepared by professionally competent experts and institutions.

Finally, we should accept Dr Arun Bapat’s proposal that India and Pakistan should launch earthquake awareness programmes and designate Oct 8 as the National Disaster Mitigation Day. Such a day is being regularly observed in Japan.

The writer is a former senior advisor to the World Bank.

Source: www.Dawn.com

Date Created: 11/28/05

Date/Time Last Modified: 11/28/2005 10:30:47 AM

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